hile no one is suggesting that the Bay of Fundy will become a balmy
tropical getaway anytime soon, most climate scientists warn that the
region will become much warmer in the next 50 to 100 years. This
warming is already underway and will likely speed up in coming
decades. Gary Lines, a Climate Change Meteorologist with
Environment Canada, estimates that the summer temperature at
Kentville, Nova Scotia, on the upper Bay, will rise by more than 3°C
by the 2050s and by at least 5°C by the 2080s. Winter temperatures
will also increase by 2°C and nearly 4°C, respectively.
Long-term records clearly show that temperature and sea level are already steadily rising all around the word, while the area of snow cover in the northern hemisphere is declining.
(Photo: Gary Lines)
The warming felt in the Bay of Fundy is part of a
worldwide trend almost certainly largely caused by the increasing
volumes of greenhouse gases (such as carbon dioxide and methane)
that humans have been producing since the industrial revolution.
Fortunately, people are now becoming worried about the threat and
even some politicians are finally taking notice. In his
government's recently released “Climate Change Action Plan,” New
Brunswick Premier Shawn Graham stated that,
“Climate change and its effects…pose a significant challenge not
only to New Brunswick but also to the whole world. These impacts
will continue in many forms, and inevitably change the way all New
Brunswickers live and prosper in our province.” Key industries
throughout the region such as forestry, farming, and fishing will
definitely be affected and the warming trend will unquestionably
have profound effects on the Bay of Fundy, its renewable resources,
and those who live on its shores.
Sea Level & Extreme Weather
It seems that almost every newscast carries alarming reports about
the melting of polar ice caps, Greenland ice sheets, and mountain
glaciers. This torrent of meltwater pouring into the sea, combined
with the fact that as the seawater warms its volume increases, is
causing the sea level to rise steadily. The land around the Bay of
Fundy is also subsiding, by almost a foot every 100 years, while the
sea is rising by at least 10-15 inches per century. These two
effects together mean that the ocean could be almost two feet higher
along the Fundy coast by 2100. A couple of feet may not sound like
much compared to the dramatic 45-foot rise and fall of the tide the
upper Bay, but it could spell devastation for many coastal areas.
Many areas of the Bay of Fundy are moderately to highly sensitive to the effects of rising sea level.
(Photo: Gary Lines)
There will certainly be more coastal erosion in vulnerable areas
around the upper Bay. More worrisome is that large areas of the
Fundy coast are already well below sea level, protected only by
earthen dykes or rocky causeways. Roads, railways, businesses, and
homes have spread into many such low-lying areas. Global warming is
expected to bring more frequent and much mightier storms to the
Maritimes. It is only a matter of time before a major nor'easter
sweeps up the Bay of Fundy when the tide is high. The accompanying
storm surge will pour over many of the dykes and flood the land and
infrastructure behind them. The dykes will then prolong the
flooding for many days by preventing the seawater from draining away
as the tide falls.
Fisheries and Aquaculture
Harvesting wild fish and shellfish, or raising them in anchored
cages in sheltered embayments, are mayor contributors to the economy
of many communities around the Bay. Fisheries scientists are
largely in agreement that the changing climate is going to
significantly affect both these industries, although most are
reluctant to say exactly what these effects will be. There are
simply too many complexities in a fish's life cycle and life style
that can be subtly influenced by even a slight rise in average
temperature for scientists to even hazard a guess as to what might
happen to the whole population. Small changes in temperature can
change the rate at which a fish grows, the amount of food it eats,
the time it takes to reach maturity and reproduce, the number of
eggs it lays, how many eggs hatch, and how many young survive to a
fishable size. In short, almost every aspect of a fish's life story
is sensitive to changing temperature. It is no wonder that
scientists are hesitant to make predictions when confronted by such
enormous biological complexity, differing in every species of fish
and shellfish they study. Nevertheless, if the average temperature
of the Bay of Fundy does rise by more than a degree or two then
fishermen will likely be harvesting different species of fish than
they do now.
Fishing boats may be harvesting different species if global warming raises the temperature of Fundy's waters significantly.
(Photo: Jon Percy)
Fish confined in aquaculture cages don't have the option of swimming
to where the temperature is more to their liking; they just have to
tough it out. On the positive side, with warmer winters aquaculture
operators won't have their stock killed by sudden cold snaps as has
happened occasionally. Warmer water, if only by a few degrees,
might make the caged fish grow a bit faster and be ready for market
sooner. However, it may also make them more susceptible to diseases
and parasites, particularly several worrisome invasive species that
area moving northward with the warming waters. If water
temperatures rise beyond the tolerance limits of the currently
farmed species, then aquaculturists, too, may have to switch to
other types of fish.
Shorebirds, Seabirds, & Marine Mammals
Climate change will undoubtedly affect the abundant seabirds,
shorebirds, and marine mammals that attract thousands of tourists to
the Fundy region each year. Many of these species are likely to
change their distributions in response to warming air and sea. Many
seabirds, such as puffins and terns, breeding in large colonies on
many Fundy Islands, may not be able hatch their eggs if extreme
weather occurs more frequently in spring and early summer. Changing
sea conditions could also reduce the availability of crustaceans and
small fish that the birds depend on to feed their young. Whales are
also likely to change their distribution if the seawater warms
significantly, particularly if their abundant food supply in the Bay
diminishes significantly. Endangered right whales may be
particularly vulnerable to the changing ocean climate. Again,
scientists are reluctant to predict exactly how seabird and whale
populations will change as the sea and air warms because of the
complexity of the factors influencing their distribution, life
history and reproduction. They are confident, though, that there
will be great changes if global warming continues on its present
course. What this all means for the burgeoning ecotourism industry
in the region is anybody's guess.
The Last Word
Climate scientists are convinced that global weather patterns have
already begun changing and that the trend will continue if humans
keep producing greenhouse gases at an ever rising rate. By working
together to sharply reduce these inputs we may be able to limit the
overall magnitude of climate change and its ecological impacts.
However, we should also start preparing our communities and
ourselves for the looming threats of rising sea level, rising
temperature, more extreme weather conditions, and bigger and more
frequent storms in the Bay of Fundy and elsewhere.
